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A Descriptive Model to Analyze Asymmetric Multilateral Negotiations: Case of Caspian Sea Conflict

Posted By misspersian in Planning and Management

In multi-lateral negotiations, parties can use their power (political, military, economic, etc.) to affect the final outcome of the game. In these games which are usually asymmetric, due to uneven powers of the negotiators, players seek reaching their most preferable outcome for which they can gain support from the other players. Conventional conflict resolution methods do not consider the power of negotiators as an element of the analysis. Here, we propose a method for studying multilateral asymmetric negotiations. This method considers the power of the negotiator as a determining factor in finding the final resolution. The proposed method is applied to find the most likely outcome of an international water conflict which has remained unresolved since 1993. In this game, five coastal countries have been negotiating over the legal status of Caspian Sea without reaching any success, resulting in tragedy of the commons. The results of this study are compared with those of other studies on Caspian Sea conflict where the powers of decision makers have not been taken into account in the analysis. http://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu -

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4 Comments

Kaveh

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MissPersian,

Thanks for posting this. I didn't know this has gone online. We have done two other studies on the Caspian Sea conflict. You might be interested in taking a look at them:

Bargaining over the Caspian Sea — The Largest Lake on the Earth http://scitation.aip.org/getabs/servlet/GetabsServlet?prog=normal&id=ASCECP000316040976000262000001&idtype=cvips&gifs=yes />
Sharing a Multi-National Resource Through Bankruptcy Procedures
http://scitation.aip.org/getabs/servlet/GetabsServlet?prog=normal&id=ASCECP000316040976000556000001&idtype=cvips&gifs=yes

Waterlover

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Interesting method! Good job Kaveh!

I also like the other 2 papers. These are great methods and Caspian Sea conflict is quite interesting! We should wait to see how good your predictions are! ;)

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