Scientists Seek Insights into Outlier Drought Projections
Although official drought outlooks failed to provide Americans with advanced notice of one of the worst droughts to strike the U.S. since the Dust Bowl-era — a drought that is still ongoing — there were some computer models that got the forecast right. Viewed as outliers at the time by climate forecasters tasked with making seasonal forecasts, such models look downright prescient with hindsight. In the wake of the flawed forecasts, climate researchers are seeking to understand what enabled certain computer models to anticipate the drought and intense heat that affected much of the U.S. beginning in March, in order to recognize the early warning signs the next time around. Their task is a complex one, since models show varying levels of skill depending on the initial climate conditions and time of year when a forecast is made.
